Are student outcomes pre-determined? – A study on the importance of prior knowledge in higher education mathematics

Abstract:
This work addresses the effect prior knowledge has on future learning in higher education; in particular how domain-specific knowledge (prior courses in mathematics) can predict the test scores in mathematical statistics. This observational study analyzes prior knowledge and test scores of 2576 engineering students registered for the basic course in mathematical statistics during a three-year period using linear, ordinal logistic and binary logistic regression. 

This work shows that:
1) a passing or failing grade can be predicted using prior knowledge alone, 
2) the need for formal prerequisites is justified, 
3) the learning outcomes might need to be updated for some engineering programs, and 
4) some engineering programs show differences that cannot be explained by prerequisites alone.

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